Drug Aware Margaret River Pro surf forecast issued 12:30pm, Wednesday, 26 March 2014.
By: Kathryn Jackson
Decreasing small S swell due for the start of the contest waiting period. Conditions show a steady SE wind regime set up side to offshore flow. Low level SW swell shows inconsistent new rise in sets around the 4-5 April.
Tuesday, 1st April Decreasing S swell 3-4ft fading 2-3ft. WIND: SSW to SSE 15 to 25 knots.
Wednesday, 2nd April Leftover S swell 1-3ft. WIND: SSE tending S 15 to 20 knots.
Thursday, 3rd April Small S swell 1-2ft. WIND: SSE tending S 10 to 15 knots.
Friday, 4th April ï¿¼Low range long period SSW groundswell starts to arrive. 2ft with buildingï¿¼inconsistent sets to 3 - 4ft in afternoon. Long lulls. WIND: ESE 5-10kt early ï¿¼tending light seabreeze to 10 knots.
Saturday, 5th April SSW swell continues inconsistent 2-3ft with inconsistent 4ft sets. Long lulls. WIND: Early, 5-10 knots, tending light seabreeze 10 knots.
A low pressure system will sweep a southerly swell into the region and produce textured waves in the 4-6ft+ range on 30th March and continue through the 31st. That S swell will decrease quickly heading into April and lead to smaller conditions for the start of the competition waiting period.
Leftover 2-3ft sets from the south hold through Wednesday, 2nd April while a fresh SSE wind sets up side to offshore conditions. Decreasing swell will drop further Thursday for small scale surf under a clean and stable SE wind regime.
Model projections indicate a low range long period SSW groundswell picking up on the 4-5 April, sourcing from a broad fetch in the low latitudes of the Indian Ocean next week. This storm source will remain at a far distance from the coast, leading to inconsistent and long lulls between sets. Occasional 2-3ft waves show a slight rise of sets into Friday afternoon and then fill in through the morning of Saturday 5th April, ranging occasionally 3-4ft. Again, long lulls should be expected between waves with extended flat periods between distant sets.
As for conditions, local winds will continue to show steady from the SE throughout the majority of the contest period. This is due to a deepening heat Low range long period SSW groundswell starts to arrive. 2ft with building inconsistent sets to 3 - 4ft in afternoon. Long lulls. WIND: ESE 5-10kt early tending light seabreeze to 10 knots.
SSW swell continues inconsistent. 2-3ft with occasional 4ft sets. Long lulls. WIND: Early E 5 to 10 knots tending light seabreeze 10 knots trough extending from the tropics next week and interacting with a stable high pressure system to our south. Under this scenario, conditions should hold a fair and steady with side to offshore wind pattern through the mornings (at least the first half of the competition period). Through the weekend of 4-6 April, the offshores may weaken and allow a seabreeze to set up through the afternoons, although at this time the seabreeze remains light on the 10kt range.
Long range weather models are diverging on the emergence of an extra-tropical low pressure system to develop in the mid-latitudes of the east Indian Ocean on the 5th April. Even so, the latest models have this storm development limited in size and proximity. At this point, we are not expecting much potential for this low to produce any significant W swell for the event this far. The favourable position of the storm, however, is worth watching for development later next week and we will keep you updated.
There is another better looking source of swell potential to emerge through the low latitudes of the southern Indian next weekend and this would lead to a better run of long range SW groundswell arrival from the 8-10 April. The SW groundswells would arise from a broad area of zonal winds set up along the southern edge of a broad high pressure system and enhanced by polar lows passing towards Kerguelen Islands. Early forecast suggest moderate 3-5ft range waves but stay tuned for updates as this develops.